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How Will the One, Big, Beautiful Tax Bill Impact Markets?

One of the opportunities we highlighted early in the year in our 2025 Outlook was a big tax bill that boosted corporate profits, similar to 2017. We never believed it would be as large as the 2017 tax bill’s boost on profits—after all, you can only cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% …

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Market Commentary: S&P Continues Decline, but Home Sales on the Rise

The S&P 500 declined for the fourth straight week. On Wednesday, the index of large U.S. companies had declined just more than 9.5% but rallied late in the week. The S&P 500 is 7.8% below its Sept. 2 high. The four-week decline has matched the characteristics of a price adjustment a …

Market Commentary: Restaurants are Rebounding, but S&P Still Lags

Retail sales figures continued a string of economic data pointing toward slowing growth accompanied by a gradual reopening of state economies. Consumers seem willing to take some risks. Retail and food service sales rose 0.6% last month. (See Chart 1.) Increased sales at restaurants contrib …

Market Commentary: Sharp Decline in S&P 500 Could Signal More Volatility

Investors were reminded stock investing comes with volatility as the S&P 500 dropped 3.5% on Thursday and declined 2.3% for the week. The downside pressure was felt most directly by stocks that had performed best. Figure 1 shows the best performing stocks this year (furthest to the righ …

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